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Howdy Reader,​
Welcome to Friday,
Whether you're gearing up for a weekend mock draft, arguing sleepers in the group chat, or just squeezing in a little fantasy prep between summer plans, we’re glad you’re here. Footballguys has always been about more than rankings and projections. It’s about the community of people who love this game like we do.
And today, we’ve got plenty to dig into.
We just dropped fresh updates to the Classic Draft Apps. They're built to help you draft smarter, faster, and with more confidence. We’re also heading to the Pacific Northwest with a full Seahawks team breakdown. And yes, IDP folks, we’ve got some love for you, too.
Our featured piece today? Sigmund Bloom highlights 12 players whose ADPs just feel... off. Some are screaming values. Others? Maybe not worth the price tag. Sig breaks it down, as only he can.
And of course, Cecil Lammey brings the News and Notes to keep you sharp.
Let’s go.
J
PS. We've also got the latest from the legal fronts on Rashee Rice and Jordan Addison.
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What's New At Footballguys
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12 Fantasy Football ADPs That Don't Make Sense
By Sigmund Bloom - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Knowing ADP is one of the most underrated fantasy football skills.
Most importantly, it gives you an idea of when you can expect players to go off the board, but it also gives you a window into the level of skepticism or faith that the fantasy football hive mind has in each player's ability to meet or exceed what they have done in the past, especially in 2024. With that in mind, there are players whose ADPs don't align with their past performance and projected future. Knowing where the gaps are between perception and reality is what fantasy draft season is all about. Which ADPs don't make sense?
NOTE: All ADPs from Footballguys Consensus ADP, distilled from multiple crystal-clear ADP mountain streams​
Mayfield is giving a scoring level in the range of the five quarterbacks going ahead of him at a two-plus round discount. Why is the fantasy hive mind skeptical about Mayfield picking up where he left off? Offensive coordinator Liam Coen did take a head coaching job in Jacksonville. The Bucs replaced him by promoting passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. So far, it sounds like he wants even more downfield passing. If you are fading Mayfield because of Coen, you better be in on Trevor Lawrence, who will be the beneficiary of Coen's leadership. Mayfield also got even better after Dave Canales left for Carolina. Is it personnel? Mayfield actually gained a very polished receiver in Emeka Egbuka, who should be an instant contributor. Remember, Mayfield also finished as QB4 last year, even though he didn't have Chris Godwin for half of the season. There were two weeks that Sterling Shepard, Rakim Jarrett, and Trey Palmer were his starting receivers. So there's hidden upside if everyone can stay healthy. The Bucs are one of the most stable offenses in the league, and there is reason for optimism that this year can be even better. Invest with confidence.
​Baker Mayfield Verdict: Smash
It is easy to forget that Jones was a low-end fantasy QB1 in 2022 with Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins as his top three wideouts because he ran for over 700 yards and seven scores. This is important to note because his new team has used the quarterback as a runner by design (although with disastrous results). Anthony Richardson's shoulder is acting up, so Jones is likely to start Week 1, and we'll see where it goes from there. He'll have a better supporting cast of wide receivers and could benefit from a fresh start. Jones' short stint studying under Kevin O'Connell could also help him right the ship. Even if he's a failure again, Jones has demonstrated fantasy relevance, and Richardson's rocky offseason should be enough for Jones to be significantly earlier than his dirt-cheap early ADP.
​Daniel Jones Verdict: Smash
​Chase Brown (RB11 - 26 overall)
Brown was a borderline first-round pick in fantasy value terms after Zack Moss went out last year. Fantasy drafters are still letting him drop to the third round. Was it that the Bengals brought back Moss? He took a pay cut from $3.4 to $1.7 million, with only $375,000 guaranteed. He's not even a sure thing to make the roster, and the Bengals certainly aren't signalling optimism about his outlook. Samaje Perine? The Bengals guaranteed $400,000 of his $1.8 million salary. That doesn't scream "core contributor". Sixth-round pick Tahj Brooks is a Matt Waldman favorite, a great late dynasty rookie pick, and a potential important player in redraft leagues if Brown goes down. But he's no threat to Brown's status as the feature back. This is a high-octane offense, and Brown is heavily involved in the passing game. Brown's ADP allows you to wait until the early third to take your RB1 and still feel like you can hang with the teams that took running backs in the top five.
​Chase Brown Verdict: Smash
Johnson had the look of a back that was going to be an important part of the Bears' backfield after a solid rookie year. His yards per carry and receiving game involvement dropped off significantly after the previous regime signed D'Andre Swift to lead the backfield. The Bears have an entirely new coaching staff. Since Ben Johnson was hired, GM Ryan Poles said that he thinks Johnson was misused last year. That's a clue that the new staff will use him more and in different ways. Johnson (or seventh-round rookie Kyle Monangai) could easily capture a David Montgomery role, with lots of early down and short-yardage work, behind a retooled offensive line that will be focused on the run. It's reasonable for Johnson to be going among the backup running backs, but he should be among the first backups taken, with the possibility of him being more, not among the last.
​Roschon Johnson Verdict: Smash
CONTINUED...
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Kansas City Chiefs WR Rashee Rice is expected to receive a multi-game suspension after pleading guilty to two felony charges.
Our view: With the legal process done, the NFL can now make moves to decide on a suspension for Rice. The length is unknown at this time, and the timing of the suspension will be something to monitor as well. Fantasy GMs are excited about Rice coming back this year after an injury-shortened 2024. Rice caught 24 passes for 288 yards and two touchdowns before going down with a knee injury in Week 4. His current ADP of WR17 may take a bit of a fall with this news.
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Denver Broncos second-round draft choice RB RJ Harvey agreed to terms on a four-year contract with the Broncos Thursday, July 17, according to a source. Financial terms were not disclosed.
Our view: Harvey was the team's second-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft, and he's there to be a big part of the offense. How large of a role will depend on his pass protection ability. With JK Dobbins on the roster, the Broncos will likely use both in an RBBC. Harvey could emerge as the primary back, but we'll need more information from camp and the preseason. Both are flex options for Fantasy GMs at this time.
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3. IND: Anthony Richardson on track for camp
Source: ESPN.com - Stephen Holder
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder) is believed to have recovered from his shoulder injury but may still be limited during the early part of training camp, according to a source.
Our view: Good news for Richardson as he's set to battle Daniel Jones for the starting job. Richardson has athletic talent and arm strength, but he struggles to stay healthy and thus has lacked the time to hone his talent as a passer. Jones is now there to win the job if Richardson struggles or gets banged up.
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4. LAC: Mike Williams set to retire
Source: ESPN.com - Adam Schefter
Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams has informed the team that he is retiring from professional football, according to sources.
Our view: Williams came back to the Chargers this offseason with the idea that he could catch some deep passes on the outside. Now, the team is going to be looking elsewhere with Williams hanging up his cleats. Guys like rookie WRs Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith get more of an opportunity with Williams retiring. This also helps the opportunity and potential fantasy value for Quentin Johnston, the Chargers no.2 receiver (with Ladd McConkey being their primary target).
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5. MIN: Jordan Addison to plead guilty
Source: ESPN.com - Kevin Seifert
Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison will plead guilty to a lesser charge after initially being charged with driving under the influence.
Our view: Fines and probation are coming up for Addison with this lesser sentence. Now, the NFL can step in and decide on further disciplinary action. A suspension in 2025 is now possible for Addison. His current ADP of WR36 could drop a bit with this news.
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6. NE: Stefon Diggs eyeing Week 1
Source: MMQB - Albert Breer
New England Patriots WR Stefon Diggs (knee) is 'trending' towards playing in Week 1, according to Albert Breer of SI.com.
Our view: Diggs suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 last year, but it looks like he could be ready for the season opener. The Patriots signed him to a big deal this offseason with the idea he could be a no.1 receiver for second-year QB Drake Maye. Expect the team to ramp Diggs up as the season goes on as he truly may not look like himself until the halfway point. From a fantasy perspective, Diggs is a 'what the heck' flex option with flex appeal (WR3) if he is healthy and plays up to his potential.
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7. PIT: Kaleb Johnson an ideal fit in Pittsburgh
Source: The Athletic - Mike DeFabo
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Kaleb Johnson is an 'ideal scheme fit' for the wide-zone runs favored by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, in the opinion of The Athletic's Mike DeFabo, who adds that the rookie's 'patient running style' and 'bruising body type' give Johnson an 'excellent chance' to become the Steelers' 'feature back of the future' as the season plays out.
Our view: Johnson is an absolute hammer, and he wins with strength, decisiveness, and a hard-charging style that makes you think old-school Steelers football. In a wide-zone system, Johnson will be able to take advantage of defenders who get out of position. With his powerful stride and lateral agility, Johnson could be quite productive as a rookie. He's going to work as a co-starter with Jaylen Warren in 2025.
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8. LAC: Najee Harris officially on NFI list
Source: NFL.com - Around The NFL
Los Angeles Chargers RB Najee Harris (eye) was placed on the Active/Non-Football Injury list Thursday, July 17.
Our view: Harris, injured in a 4th of July accident, can be activated at any time. The injury was thought to be superficial, but missing time in camp says it might be a bit more serious. In the meantime, 2025 first-round pick Omarion Hampton - who has 'stud' running back written all over him - gets the bulk of the first-team work. While Harris and Hampton were thought to be in a timeshare, this injury could open the door for Hampton to take over as the lead back.
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9. SF: Jacob Cowing set for larger role?
Source: The Athletic - Vic Tafur
San Francisco 49ers WR Jacob Cowing might 'carve out an important role' during training camp, per Vic Tafur of The Athletic, who writes that the team likes his 'toughness, speed, and nose for yards after catch.' Tafur adds that Cowing could inherit 'a lot' of the gadget plays that current Washington Commanders WR Deebo Samuel got during his time with the 49ers.
Our view: There has been a consistent drumbeat here. Nobody with the 49ers has taken advantage of the offseason like Cowing, according to reports. He's worked on his speed out of breaks, and Cowing has added weight to his frame. In deeper leagues, we like taking Cowing as a late-round flier pick with upside.
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10. WAS: Luke McCaffrey making strides
Source: The Athletic - Mike Jones
Washington Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey showed 'an improved understanding of the playbook and improved confidence' during offseason practices, in the opinion of The Athletic's Mike Jones, who writes that McCaffrey should 'carve out a meaningful role in 2025.'
Our view: Let's put a pin in this, and dynasty GMs need to certainly take note. McCaffrey is an athletic technician who knows how to get open, but he had a disappointing rookie season. The Commanders need some young talent to elevate as QB Jayden Daniels continues to grow in the NFL. McCaffrey is buried on the depth chart at this time, and we'll see if these strides taken help him earn more playing time.
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That’ll do it for today, Folks.
Thanks for spending a little bit of your Friday with us. Whether you’ve been rocking with Footballguys since the CD-ROM days or just joined this summer, we’re grateful to be part of your season.
This game’s better when we do it together. Debates, deep dives, missed picks, league titles, and all.
We’ll be back tomorrow with more. Until then, enjoy the day, fire up the group chat, and keep chasing that edge.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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