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Howdy Reader,​
Welcome in.
We’ve got a good one today. And it starts with the Cardinals. You know how we do: full Team Vibes, Sleepers, Busts, and the IDPs worth targeting. All in one place, so you stay ahead of the pack.
Then, David Zacharias is back with another edition of the Dynasty Commissioner’s Handbook. It's packed with wisdom for the folks who keep the leagues running smoothly.
And our Jason Wood has been turning over every stone on two of the most talked-about QBs this offseason. First, he asks whether we’re overrating Justin Fields’ rushing upside. Then, for Premium Subscribers, he unpacks "The Myth of Geno Smith." Both are sharp, nuanced reads that’ll make you think twice on draft day.
As always, Bob Harris brings you the News and Notes to keep you locked in.
Let’s get to it.
J
PS. If you haven’t pre-ordered your Footballguys Draft Guide Magazine, time is running out. Pre-orders close Wednesday morning for the first wave shipping August 4.
And don’t forget: 12 lucky readers will find a Golden Ticket tucked inside. Good for a Lifetime Premium Footballguys Subscription. You don’t want to miss this.
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Golden Ticket? Lifetime Glory.
Hidden inside 12 Footballguys Magazines: a Golden Ticket to a Lifetime of Footballguys.
Each Golden Ticket unlocks a Lifetime Hall of Fame Premium Footballguys Subscription! That’s every article, every tool, every update - so you can keep dominating your leagues forever.
Footballguys turns 25 this year - and we couldn't have done it without you. We hope this magazine earns a place in your collection - maybe with a Golden Ticket inside.
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What's New At Footballguys
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Justin Fields: Overvaluing Rushing Upside – Everyone knows Justin Fields runs. Jason Wood reveals why that’s not enough — and why it might be time to look elsewhere.
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The Myth of Geno Smith – One breakout, 11 seasons, zero playoff wins — Jason Wood explains why Geno Smith is still being drafted too early.
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Dynasty Commissioner's Handbook: The Fantasy Playoff Encore – Want your league to thrive past Week 14? David Zacharias shares postseason strategies every dynasty commissioner should know.
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Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Overview - Our Footballguys Staff examines the Cardinals from every angle — Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey Benson, and Budda Baker headline a volatile roster full of questions. From sleeper value to bust risk, you can find it here.
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Justin Fields: Overvaluing Rushing Upside
By Jason Wood - Exclusive to Footballguys
The following feature is a free preview of our content. If you like it, click here to sign up for access to our Footballguys Premium Subscriptions, and you'll get all of our content. We're so sure you'll love it that we have an industry-leading 30-day MoneyBack Guarantee, so there's zero risk.
Fields of Dreams, or Fields of Nightmares?
If there's one thing we could use less of in this industry, it's the tired trope of rushing quarterbacks being a “cheat code.” Yes, most of today's elite fantasy quarterbacks rack up big numbers on the ground, but that's only half the story. They're also highly efficient and productive passers. Calling them cheat codes oversimplifies just how skilled they are as quarterbacks.
Which brings us to the problem with Justin Fields' fantasy outlook. He's being drafted as a top-10 option, and it's easy to understand why. He's the clear starter for the New York Jets and one of the most prolific rushing quarterbacks of the past decade. In a scoring system that heavily rewards rushing, Fields feels like a must-consider. But drafting him that high means you're paying for perfection while exposing yourself to considerable downside risk.
There are three major concerns:
- He isn't a good passer
- He takes an unsustainable number of sacks
- He's a turnover machine
A Passer in Name Only
​Justin Fields isn't an unfinished product, despite what you may hear from others within the industry. He's started 44 NFL games, which is a massive sample size. The chances that he's going to evolve into a significantly different quarterback are slim to none.
In that vein, let's acknowledge that Fields has been one of the NFL's least productive fantasy passers since entering the league in 2021. Fifty-five quarterbacks have started at least 10 games in that span, and Fields ranks 50th in fantasy passing points per game.
Sacks Aplenty
Footballguy Adam Harstad has done significant research over the years, showing repeatedly that sacks are actually a quarterback stat. While offensive lines matter (obviously), there's a surprising tendency for quarterback sack rates to stabilize even as they change teams and play with different offensive lines. With that in mind, realize that Justin Fields is an offensive line coach's worst nightmare. He's incapable of avoiding pressure without breaking free of the intended pass play to scramble.
There are 66 active quarterbacks with at least 10 NFL career starts. Justin Fields has the worst sack rate of the bunch.
Disturbingly High Turnover Propensity
Coaches hate turnovers. We can debate whether they should bench players for them as often as they do, but that doesn't change how the league works. And for Justin Fields, his tendency to give the ball away is the biggest threat to his job security.
The fairest way to evaluate a quarterback's turnover risk is to count all fumbles as turnover-worthy plays. A quarterback might officially lose only two fumbles in a season, but if he put the ball on the ground ten times and his team recovered eight of them, that's not sustainable. Fumble recoveries are random. Any fumble is just as likely to be a turnover as not, so we should count all of them, lost or not, when assessing a quarterback's risk.
​Justin Fields has averaged 1.70 interceptions plus fumbles per game in his career, which ranks eighth worst among the 66 active quarterbacks with at least 10 career starts. Now look at the rest of the bottom 10: Joshua Dobbs, Kyle Allen, Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard, Jameis Winston, Desmond Ridder, Blaine Gabbert, and Anthony Richardson Sr.. That's not the company you want to keep. Only Richardson has a path toward being a starter in the future, and his outlook is clouded by Daniel Jones. Fields' ball security puts him squarely in the tier of quarterbacks teams have already moved on from as potential franchise cornerstones.
CONTINUED...
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The Jets and wide receiver Garrett Wilson reached agreement on a four-year, $130 million contract extension that includes $90 million guaranteed, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Our view: It's the first time in NFL history that a receiver has received an average of over $31 million after playing only three seasons. Wilson will be under contract the next six seasons, through 2030. Meanwhile, it's fair to wonder how effective Wilson will be with Justin Fields as his quarterback -- at least in the short term. We do have some history here. In a pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Wilson caught 43 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns in eight games with Fields as his QB at Ohio State. Over two seasons playing together in Columbus, the duo combined for 11 touchdowns. For our purposes, Wilson is being drafted as WR15 in Round 3.
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San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings, who is scheduled to make $7.5 million this season in the final year of his deal, wants a new contract or a trade, according to sources.
Our view: Jennings signed a two-year, $15.4 million deal with the team in March 2024. But after leading San Francisco's wideouts with 77 catches, 975 yards, and six touchdowns last season, his desire to be better compensated isn't a huge surprise. With Brandon Aiyuk still recovering from a torn ACL and MCL, Jennings is likely a key figure in San Francisco's offensive plans in the coming season. A front-loaded deal this year -- before multiple extensions (including Brock Purdy's) kick in next year -- is doable. For our purpose, Jennings currently has a very affordable seventh-round price tag.
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3. SF: Jauan Jennings not expected to hold out
Source: ESPN - Adam Schefter
Updating an earlier report, San Francisco 49ers WR Jauan Jennings isn't expected to hold out of training camp if he doesn't receive a new deal. Jennings has approached the 49ers about his request, but little progress has been made, a source told ESPN. If a new deal is not reached by the time training camp starts next week, Jennings plans to request a trade to a team willing to pay him. Entering 2025, Jennings is slated to count $4.258 million against the cap in the final year of the two-year, $15.39 million extension he signed last offseason. The 49ers feel they have treated him fairly, a source said.
Our view: Again, with Brandon Aiyuk recovering from a torn ACL, Jennings is expected to play a robust role to open the season -- and likely beyond. Although we don't expect a quick resolution, there's nothing here that changes Jennings' fantasy value. He is currently being drafted as WR38 (in Round 7). That's excellent value for a player who delivered the second-highest single-game fantasy points total of the year among all wideouts (46 PPR points) in Week 3 against the Rams.
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4. LAC: Mike Williams to miss start of camp
Source: The Athletic - Daniel Popper
Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams (undisclosed) was placed on the Active/Physically Unable to Perform list Monday, July 14.
Our view: Williams signed with the Chargers this offseason with the hope that he would add to an offense that finished 11th in the NFL in scoring last season. Williams is looking to get his career back on track after catching just 21 passes in 18 games for the Jets and Steelers last season. The 30-year-old dealt with an array of injuries during his first stint with the Chargers after the team selected him No. 7 overall in the 2017 draft. A player can come off the PUP list at any point during training camp.
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5. LAC: Najee Harris Avoids PUP List Despite Eye Injury
Source: CBSsports.com - Bryan DeArdo
Just days after it was announced that former Pro Bowl running back Najee Harris is dealing with a "superficial eye injury" after a Fourth of July fireworks accident, it's notable that he isn't on the team's PUP list, given the timing of his injury.
Our view: Harris, who signed a one-year deal with the Chargers this offseason, is expected to be one-half of Los Angeles' 1-2 punch at running back with rookie first-round pick Omarion Hampton. A fellow former first-round pick himself, Harris is the only running back in the NFL who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of the last four years. For the record, Hampton's being drafted as RB16; Harris is RB34. We'll be tracking this competition closely in coming weeks.
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6. LAR: Kyren Williams closer to extension?
Source: The Athletic - Jourdan Rodrigue
Los Angeles Rams RB Kyren Williams could have a contract extension worked out 'by the end of training camp,' according to Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic.
Our view: Rodrigue went on to suggest the Rams will not pay top-market money for a running back, but Williams is a team leader and one of the more productive at his position in the NFL. He doesn't hit "home run" explosives, but he tied among his peers for the third-most rushing touchdowns in 2024 (14) and ranked seventh in total rushing yards (1,299). With or without a new deal, Williams is going as RB12 with an early third-round average draft position.
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7. CHI: Colston Loveland may not be ready for start of camp?
Source: ProFootballTalk.com - Josh Alper
Chicago Bears TE Colston Loveland (shoulder) hosted his first football camp for kids last week, but he was seen throwing the ball only with his left hand while helping out at the camp. Loveland told Aaron McMann of MLive.com that he will not have a full sense of how his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery went until he reports to training camp at the end of this week. 'It's been good. There haven't really been live bullets flying yet. We'll really know in camp once I get out there, doing a lot more stuff,' Loveland said.
Our view: The Bears drafted Loveland after using free agency to fortify their offensive line, and all of the moves are designed to give quarterback Caleb Williams a leg up in his second NFL season. Full health across the board will be a plus to that bid, so the Bears will be hoping to see Loveland doing everything on the practice field. Loveland is being drafted as TE13 at the end of the 10th round.
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8. KC: Andy Reid looking to reinvigorate deep passing attack
Source: NFL.com - Nick Shook
Kansas City Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy told Kay Adams of the 'Up and Adams' podcast that head coach Andy Reid told the receiver group to 'get your hamstrings ready' during the opening phase of organized team activities this spring. 'Coach Reid told us during OTAs Phase 1, 'When you come back, get your hamstrings ready.' So, we kind of knew that we were going to be going a little deep during practice. We kind of got our bodies and our minds ready for what we're going to be doing in practice,' Worthy told Adams.
Our view: It makes sense. While the Chiefs are winning, they're doing it despite lacking the signature explosive plays of years past. Since logging a career-high average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.7 yards in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has landed below eight yards in each of the last four seasons, per Pro Football Focus. His previous two seasons have been at or below seven yards. Now, with Worthy emerging as a legitimate deep threat, Reid is joining Mahomes in suggesting that going deep more often is a goal this season.
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9. CAR: Bryce Young under pressure
Source: PanthersWire - Anthony Rizzuti
Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young must prove he's the franchise quarterback or else Carolina 'might have to pivot at the position for 2026,' in the opinion of Panthers Wire's Anthony Rizzuti.
Our view: As Rizzuti reminded readers, Young put a slow start to 2024 behind him with a strong resurgence down the stretch. He totaled 2,327 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six picks over the final 10 outings. From a fantasy perspective, Young really picked up the pace after the Panthers’ Week 11 bye. He averaged over 21 fantasy points per game across seven starts. He was QB6 over that stretch. So he may have something to prove in Carolina, but for fantasy investors looking for a cheap QB2 with upside, Young, currently going as QB24 in Round 13, fits the bill.
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That’ll do it for today, Folks.
Thanks for reading. And thanks for being part of this Footballguys community. We’re grateful to be in your inbox.
We’ll see you tomorrow with the Update.
Peace, Love, and Fantasy Football,
J
PS. If you’re planning to grab the Draft Guide Magazine, don’t wait. Pre-orders close Wednesday morning, and we’ve only got a limited number of copies in the first wave.
And remember — 12 of those copies come with a Golden Ticket for a Lifetime Footballguys Premium Subscription. Grab yours before they’re gone. 👉
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Written By Joe Bryant. News by Sigmund Bloom, Bob Harris, and Cecil Lammey
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